The ¥1,030,000 Wall

Has the long decline in birth rate finally resulted in a major labor shortage?

Two years ago, a popular restaurant chain opened a new store in our city and we went to the grand opening sale.  Many waitresses serving the tables, around 10.  Last year they advertised robot servers mocked up to resemble cats.  While my kids thought it great, I remarked to my wife that they were just taking jobs away from humans.  She immediately showed me another ad in the paper from a local ramen shop.  It’s stated that due to a staffing shortage, they were operating on a reduced and erratic schedule.  Since then, I would hear of other food service businesses also suffering from a dearth of labor and now see “Help Wanted” signs posted on every kind of business. 

Last week, during my class with the CEO of a food service business, I learned that his 11 stores were also short handed.  This surprised me as early on in the panic, one of the groups most adversely affected by the lockdowns lite (tm) were those who worked as servers in the food service industry.  This group saw one of the greatest increases in suicide during the panic as they were shut off from their only source of income and forced to stay inside, often alone.  I could not understand why, with businesses allowed to operate more normally again that there would be such a shortage of labor to fill the newly reopened positions.  Some Ideas I did in fact have; such as the fact that as universities went online, there was no need for students to leave home to live near their schools.  I know this has been a problem for landlords who provided housing for students.  But this did not seem to me big enough to answer for the entirety of the problem.  My student, CEO, was also at a loss to explain it.  As far as I know, Japan has not paid out huge sums to those who lost work due to the government’s “recommendations” as the US has.  The mystery remained unsolved.

Gassing up the car last Sunday before heading out for camping the next day, I was shocked that there was only one, very busy attendant on duty.  I have never, in the 14 years of using that gas station seen only one person on duty.  Rarely as few as just 2, three to five being the norm.  It is a full service station and one person only meant it took a long time to get gas and the tires checked.  For the first time, I saw a “Help Wanted” sign there too.   

Today, my student had an answer, the ¥1,030,000 wall.  Minors who earn above this threshold can not be claimed as dependents on their parents’ tax returns.  This prevents them from working as many hours as they may like.  Many of his employees asked if they could work for free or get paid in cash for hours that would put them above this amount.  It is, by all accounts, a fun place to work.   But this is not a new issue, why is it responsible for the labor shortage?  I asked if the multigenerational less than replacement birth rate has finally reached the point where there simply are not enough Japanese to work all available jobs, to which he nodded emphatically “yes” and then said, “That’s right.”.  If he is correct, and I have not known him to not be, this is BIG and BADD.

Starting years ago now, elementary schools have merged resulting in many school buildings closing due to lack of students.  Then Jr. High schools and high schools.  For more than a decade, universalities have had to merge to stay afloat, many just closed their doors.  Now, we have not enough to operate the businesses that survived the covid lockdowns.  Given the age range of the employees at my student’s stores, 16 and up with most being between 16 and 22, turn over is high.  Recruiting is down 40% from 3 years ago.   

Hotels have also been reported to be horribly understaffed upon reopening.  Despite this, their prices have skyrocketed.  My wife’s friend from work who took in three of the four cats we rescued has been asked to shepard the first group of foreign visitors to their office since the panic began.  She was upset that they are being accommodated at a hotel far from the office and wondered why.  Prepanic price per night at the hotel near the office was ¥30,000.  It is now ¥150,000 per night.  The budget hotel APA Hotel was ¥10,000 per night, now it is ¥30,000.

Back to my main topic, masks.  My CEO student did not know the current percentage of his floor staff that were wearing masks but said that those who are have changed from “It is embarrassing” to not wear one to “Doshiyo?”/“what should I do” about the mask?